Every December, the same question echoes across Indiana: will we finally get a White Christmas?

For 2025, the meteorological verdict is in, and snow lovers won't be happy. With just 48 hours until Christmas Day, the National Weather Service has locked in forecasts showing temperatures in the 50s and 60s across Indiana. That means 2025 will officially be a brown (or green) Christmas for Hoosiers statewide.

But before you pack away those sled dreams entirely, let's dig into the real history of Indiana's holiday snowfall, what the forecast actually says, and why White Christmases are more complicated than most people realize.

The Official 2025 Forecast: Rain, Not Snow

According to the National Weather Service, Indiana is in store for an unusually warm Christmas week. Here's what the major cities can expect on December 25th:

• Indianapolis: High of 64°F with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of rain. This would tie the record high set in 1893 for the warmest Christmas since 1871.

• South Bend: High near 48°F with cloudy conditions.

• Fort Wayne: Mid-40s with overcast skies.

• Evansville: Highs approaching 60°F, nearly summer-like for late December.

With temperatures this high, any precipitation will fall as rain. And any snow left over from earlier in December? Long gone by the time Santa arrives.

What Actually Counts as a White Christmas?

Meteorologists define a "White Christmas" as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th. It doesn't necessarily mean snow has to be falling, just that there's measurable accumulation from previous storms.

This distinction matters because Indiana often sees December snowfall that melts before the holiday arrives. A cold snap on December 15th doesn't help much if it's 55 degrees on Christmas Eve.

When Was Indiana's Last True White Christmas?

The most recent widespread White Christmas in Indiana was 2022. That year, a historic arctic blast swept through the Midwest from December 22-23, sending temperatures plunging to -10°F and dumping several inches of snow. Because it stayed bitterly cold through Christmas morning, that snow stayed frozen solid, giving Indiana one of its most picturesque holiday scenes in recent memory.

Before 2022, the White Christmas track record gets complicated by Indiana's geography. The state sits in a "transition zone" where northern and southern regions rarely share the same weather conditions.

Regional Breakdown: Why Northern and Southern Indiana Are So Different

Indiana stretches 250 miles from Lake Michigan to the Ohio River, and that distance creates dramatically different winter weather patterns.

Northern Indiana (South Bend, Fort Wayne, Gary): Lake-effect snow from Lake Michigan gives this region the best odds for holiday snow. Even when no major storm systems move through, moisture from the lake can drop 2-3 inches overnight in places like South Bend while Indianapolis sits under clear skies. Historical odds of a White Christmas here run around 40-50%.

Central Indiana (Indianapolis, Lafayette, Muncie): The middle of the state sees White Christmases roughly 25% of the time, about once every four years on average. Indianapolis last had significant Christmas snow in 2022, and before that, 2017.

Southern Indiana (Evansville, Jeffersonville, Bloomington): The southern region has the lowest odds at just 10-15%. Warmer temperatures from the Ohio River Valley often keep precipitation as rain rather than snow. Southern Indiana can go a decade or more between White Christmases. The 2022 arctic blast was a genuine rarity for places like Evansville.

Indiana's Recent "Brown Christmas" Streak

Looking at the past several years, warm Decembers have become the norm rather than the exception:

• 2025 (Predicted): Brown. Record-challenging warmth with highs in the 60s.

• 2024: Brown. Mild conditions with rain.

• 2023: Brown. One of the warmest Decembers on record statewide.

• 2022: WHITE. The arctic outlier with bitter cold and widespread snow coverage.

• 2021: Brown. Indianapolis hit 63°F on Christmas Day.

• 2019: Brown. Temperatures reached 62°F in Indy.

That 2022 White Christmas was truly an exception to recent trends. Since then, we've returned to the pattern of unseasonably warm holiday weather.

Quick Facts: Indiana White Christmas Trivia

• The Record Holder: 1917 remains one of the snowiest Christmases in Indiana history, with some areas reporting over 15 inches of snow on the ground.

• The "Southern Miracle" of 2004: A rare storm hit only Southern Indiana that year, giving Evansville a White Christmas while parts of Northern Indiana stayed dry. A complete weather reversal.

• Statistical Reality: In Indianapolis, you statistically see a White Christmas roughly once every 4 years. We're currently in a stretch of warmer Decembers that has bucked that average.

• Record Warm Territory: Since 1871, the high temperature in Indianapolis on December 25th has exceeded 60°F just five times. Two of those have occurred in the last five years (2021 and 2019), and 2025 is poised to join that list.

The Verdict for 2025

Pack your raincoat instead of your sled. While Currier & Ives postcards and holiday movies make White Christmases feel like the norm, Indiana's reality is much more hit-or-miss, and 2025 is firmly in the "miss" category.

The silver lining? Mild weather means easier travel conditions for visiting family and friends across the state. And if you're still craving some holiday magic, there's plenty happening around Indiana that doesn't require snowflakes.

If you haven't caught one of Indiana's incredible Christmas light displays yet, you still have time. Check out our guide to the 10 best Christmas light shows in Indiana for glowing gardens, drive-through spectaculars, and family-friendly displays across the state.

And once Christmas passes, the celebrations aren't over. Start planning your New Year's Eve now with our roundups of NYE events in Central Indiana, Northern Indiana, and Southern Indiana.

Maybe 2026 will bring us the snowy Christmas we've been dreaming of. Until then, grab some hot cocoa, enjoy the mild weather, and have a wonderful Hoosier holiday, snow or shine.